Analytics
Resolved No on 9 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 97.9%. Yes opened at 25% on 17 Oct 2025. Before it settled, the high was 25% on 17 Oct 2025 and the low 1.8% on 2 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 9% on 18 Oct 2025. $2.1M traded over the market's life.
725 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 9, 7:51 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 339 points · 17 Oct 2025 – 9 Oct 2026 · axis zoomed to 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Oct 2025 | 25.0% |
| 9 Oct 2026 | 2.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 468.61K |
| The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA | Yes | 120.88K |
| Anjun | Yes | 56.94K |
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139
| 0xdc3E831cad | Yes | 43.75K |
| aviato | Yes | 40K |
| Fearless-Misnomer | Yes | 30.21K |
| imnice | Yes | 27.49K |
| aenews2 | Yes | 25.63K |
| ImJustKenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | Yes | 16.69K |
| sciuboi | Yes | 13.89K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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