Analytics
Resolved No on 4 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 29.5% on 22 May 2026. Before it settled, across the 44 daily closes on record from 22 May 2026 to 4 Jul 2026, the highest close was 29.5% on 22 May 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 3 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 7.5% on 23 May 2026. $3.05M traded over the market's life.
517 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 4, 9:41 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 44 points, 22 May 2026 – 4 Jul 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 May 2026 | 29.5% |
| 4 Jul 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 23449 | Yes | 58.24K |
| 5038813185 | Yes | 36.59K |
| 6089261455 | Yes | 22.12K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz refers to U.S. acceptance of Iran imposing tolls, transit fees, passage charges, or other mandatory payments on commercial vessels in exchange for transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The United States will be considered to have agreed to Iran charging such fees if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to accept Iran charging such fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. - Iran charging such fees is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran, including through signing or other formal means. Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization, or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will qualify, regardless of when or whether the specified action is implemented. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-iranian-demands-will-trump-agree-to-by-june-30
| Yes |
| 17.89K |
| Overland | Yes | 16.07K |
| troim | Yes | 15K |
| yen4u | Yes | 12.96K |
| 007x007 | Yes | 12.82K |
| MtnMark | Yes | 11.83K |
| Eviliam718 | Yes | 11.5K |
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