Will Thorsten Frei be the next leader of the German Union (CDU/CSU)?

politicsResolved

Yes, settled Jul 31, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$27.4K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Jul 31, 2026 UTC

Topic roomWorld elections

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 31 Jul 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.4%. Yes opened at 42.5% on 19 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 12 daily closes on record from 19 Jul 2026 to 31 Jul 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 99.7% on 30 Jul 2026 and the lowest 42.5% on 19 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 32 points up, to 82.5% on 22 Jul 2026. $27.36K traded over the market's life.

33 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Aug 1, 4:49 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 12 points, 19 Jul 2026 – 31 Jul 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
19 Jul 2026	42.5%
31 Jul 2026	99.4%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
BKno95	No	4.45K
lineth	No	891.26
Indigo Signal 2966	No	755.42

10 of 33 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

On July 18, 2026, Jens Spahn resigned as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after coming under mounting political pressure over his use of surrogacy to become a parent (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/senior-merz-ally-spahn-resigns-after-coming-under-pressure-germany-over-2026-07-18/). This market will resolve according to the first person formally elected as Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group following Jens Spahn. The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement that the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group has elected its next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender after Jens Spahn. Nominations, agreements between Friedrich Merz and Markus Söder, and temporary, interim, or acting performance of the chair’s duties will not qualify. If the next Unionsfraktionsvorsitzender of the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group after Jens Spahn is not announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the CDU/CSU Bundestag parliamentary group; however, a consensus of credible media sources will also suffice.