Analytics
Yes is at 92.5%, up 77 points from 16% when the market opened on 24 Sep 2026.
Across the 32 daily closes on record from 24 Sep 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 95.5% on 16 Oct 2026 and the lowest 7.5% on 28 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 94.5%; a month before, 7.5%. Its largest one-day move was 50 points up, to 77% on 13 Oct 2026.
No release by October 31 is the favourite of the 6 outcomes in “Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?”, ahead of October 27 at 3.6%.
$8.31K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $27.12K since listing. The order book holds $6.06K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 372 trades, $7.21K bought Yes and $1.77K bought No; the largest was a $1.66K buy of Yes at 78.0¢.
The largest Yes position is KimchiCapital with 3.8K shares; the largest No position is xtxpleasecallme with 1.5K. Ten wallets hold 74.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Oct 2026, 4 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 3:08 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 32 points, 24 Sep 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Sep 2026 | 16.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 92.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| KimchiCapital | Yes | 3.81K |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 1.54K |
| xiaojiren | Yes | 1.15K |
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-muse-spark-model-1pt4-released-onptptpt-20260922133617102
| Contentious-Dinnerdate |
| No |
| 830.19 |
| burge146 | No | 771.2 |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 519.02 |
| lissartter | No | 508.13 |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yes | 400 |
| pragmat1sm | Yes | 357.24 |
| longdated-poli | No | 318.25 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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