Analytics
Paper trading
Yes is at 61.5%, up 10 points from 51.5% when the market opened on 16 Sep 2026.
The high was 68.5% on 3 Oct 2026 and the low 44.5% on 22 Sep 2026. A week ago Yes was at 68.5%. Its largest one-day move was 13 points up, to 68.5% on 3 Oct 2026.
It is one of 13 markets under “Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?”.
$515.31 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $59.69K since listing. The order book holds $38.51K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 326 trades, $12.01K bought Yes and $8.73K bought No; the largest was a $2.54K buy of Yes at 56.7¢.
The largest Yes position is mombil with 4.9K shares; the largest No position is flawfence with 3.5K. Ten wallets hold 74.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2030.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 13, 11:43 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 28 points, 16 Sep 2026 – 13 Oct 2026, chart shows 30%–80%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Sep 2026 | 51.5% |
| 13 Oct 2026 | 61.5% |
Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-chancellor-of-germany-before-2028-before-2028
1 more market, none above 0.1%.
| hynix |
| No |
| 2.8K |
| StarMaster | Yes | 2K |
| justme003 | Yes | 1.31K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.18K |
| maximus26 | No | 1.13K |
| dsds1 | Yes | 893.16 |
| buoys | No | 737.9 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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