Analytics
Yes is at 4%, down 7.5 points from 11.5% when the market opened on 16 Sep 2026.
Across the 39 daily closes on record from 16 Sep 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 21% on 21 Sep 2026 and the lowest 2.5% on 14 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4%; a month before, 14.5%. Its largest one-day move was 9 points down, to 5.5% on 3 Oct 2026.
Markus Söder ranks fifth of the 13 outcomes in “Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?”. No Next Chancellor before 2028 leads at 64.5%; Hendrik Wüst is at 13.5%.
$3.98K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $16.14K, with a 4.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 84 trades, $86.82 bought Yes and $1.84K bought No.
The largest Yes position is LECKEIER2026 with 312 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.2K. Ten wallets hold 81.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2030.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 1:48 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 39 points, 16 Sep 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Sep 2026 | 11.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 4.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.18K |
| StarMaster | No | 503.51 |
| LECKEIER2026 | Yes | 312 |
Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-chancellor-of-germany-before-2028-before-2028
1 more outcome, none above 0.1%.
| xtxpleasecallme |
| Yes |
| 231.56 |
| 2B9S | Yes | 180 |
| Antony82 | No | 158.96 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 126.69 |
| flashboys2 | Yes | 120 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 101.1 |
| GarthBroadmore | Yes | 100 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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