Analytics
Resolved No on 21 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 45.5% on 7 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 15 daily closes on record from 7 Jul 2026 to 21 Jul 2026, the highest close was 45.5% on 7 Jul 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 21 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 29 points down, to 9.5% on 14 Jul 2026. $19.5K traded over the market's life.
27 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 21, 11:59 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 15 points, 7 Jul 2026 – 21 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Jul 2026 | 45.5% |
| 21 Jul 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 2.6K |
| Athletic-Manager | Yes | 781.25 |
| Banditoes | Yes | 660.52 |
| akko123 | Yes | 500 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to the individual who is officially appointed as the next Defence Secretary of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Defence Secretary will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Defence Secretary is appointed, or Dan Jarvis is re-appointed as Defence Secretary, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No next Defence Secretary in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-uk-defence-secretary-in-2026-20260706182213394
| RustyScissors | Yes | 479.44 |
| TeenagePanda | Yes | 185.71 |
| Golden Beacon 67A6 | Yes | 147.19 |
| sirmisterk | Yes | 139.41 |
| acc32 | Yes | 125 |
| tandjlover | Yes | 120 |
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