Analytics
Yes is at 2.3%, down 16 points from 18.5% when the market opened on 2 Oct 2026.
Across the 20 daily closes on record from 2 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (9 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 20.5% on 11 Oct 2026 and the lowest 1.4% on 25 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 3.5%. Its largest one-day move was 8.5 points down, to 10% on 3 Oct 2026.
<20 ranks fourth of the 5 outcomes in “Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?”. 25-29 leads at 68%; 30-34 is at 26%.
$13.36K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $24.29K, with a 2.8% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 189 trades, $544.55 bought Yes and $3.05K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Shy-Note with 1.2K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 2.2K. Ten wallets hold 80.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 2 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:15 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 20 points, 2 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | 18.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 2.2% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 2.21K |
| Shy-Note | Yes | 1.16K |
| MaxVision | No | 1K |
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for October 31, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab El-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/avgpt-of-ships-transiting-bab-el-mandeb-strait-end-of-october
| RememberAmalek |
| Yes |
| 652.46 |
| PavtheGreat | No | 410 |
| Tallguy2527 | Yes | 300 |
| Specialist200303 | Yes | 257.31 |
| balthazar | Yes | 222.68 |
| youtube-trader | Yes | 201.63 |
| kanhaoleaha | No | 200 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
