Analytics
Yes is at 39%, up 12 points from 27% when the market opened on 4 Oct 2026.
Across the 20 daily closes on record from 4 Oct 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 33.5% on 24 Oct 2026 and the lowest 12% on 8 Oct 2026. The current quote, 39%, is above every close in that window; the latest close was 33.5% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 23.5%. Its largest one-day move was 9.5 points up, to 23% on 17 Oct 2026.
3 ranks second of the 5 outcomes in “How many US aircraft carriers in CENTCOM on November 30?”. 2 leads at 49%; 1 is at 7.5%.
$758.53 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $7.32K since listing. The order book holds $23.73K, with a 4.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 147 trades, $905 bought Yes and $1.36K bought No.
The largest Yes position is MEPP with 1.1K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1.4K. Ten wallets hold 83.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Dec 2026, 34 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 2:44 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 20 points, 4 Oct 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Oct 2026 | 27.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 33.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.43K |
| MEPP | Yes | 1.07K |
| ToTheWindow | No | 434.99 |
This market will resolve according to the number of U.S. Navy aircraft carriers physically located within the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility at 12:00 PM ET on November 30, 2026. For the purposes of this market, “aircraft carriers” refers only to U.S. Navy aircraft carriers designated CVN (e.g., Nimitz-class and Gerald R. Ford-class carriers). Amphibious assault ships (LHA/LHD), other vessels, and ships of any other country will not count. A carrier will count if it is within the CENTCOM area of responsibility at the specified time, including while making a port call or other stop within the area. A carrier outside the CENTCOM area of responsibility at the specified time (e.g., in transit, or making a port call in the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command or U.S. European Command areas of responsibility) will not count, regardless of whether it is assigned to CENTCOM operations. A carrier that enters the area on November 30, 2026 will count only if it entered at or before 12:00 PM ET; a carrier that departs the area on November 30, 2026 will count only if it departed after 12:00 PM ET. Carrier locations will be determined by official information from the U.S. Navy, the U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, or U.S. European Command, or by a consensus of credible reporting, and may be established by information published after the specified time. In the event of ambiguity as to the number of carriers within the area at the specified time, this market will remain open until the earlier of: (i) confirmation of the relevant carriers' locations at the specified time, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) following November 30, 2026. The market will resolve based on the totality of information available at that time. Any carrier whose presence within the area at the specified time remains materially ambiguous at that point will not be counted. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the United States government and military, including the U.S. Navy, the Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, and U.S. European Command, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-us-aircraft-carriers-in-centcom-on-november-30
| xtxpleasecallme |
| No |
| 305.66 |
| Aged-Ladybug-Version | Yes | 221.42 |
| melonmanm | Yes | 197.09 |
| yungsoleimani | Yes | 195.29 |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | No | 186.16 |
| L1quid | Yes | 159.99 |
| taerv534 | Yes | 138.03 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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