Yes is at 17.5%, up 5 points from 12.5% when the market opened on 2 Oct 2026.
Across the 24 daily closes on record from 2 Oct 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 17.5% on 5 Oct 2026 and the lowest 7% on 3 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 11%. Its largest one-day move was 7 points up, to 17.5% on 5 Oct 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “US Announces Diesel Export ban by...?”.
$590.37 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $13.47K since listing. The order book holds $17.94K, with a 5.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 248 trades, $671.38 bought Yes and $3.37K bought No.
The largest Yes position is TitanRTX with 1.3K shares; the largest No position is Tenebrus7 with 1.3K. Ten wallets hold 83.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 12:26 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 24 points, 2 Oct 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | 12.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 17.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| TitanRTX | Yes | 1.34K |
| Tenebrus7 | No | 1.26K |
| Flamboyant-Warming | Yes | 1.05K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, the White House, a Cabinet member, an agency or department legally authorized to take such action, or an authorized representative thereof, publicly and officially announces a ban on the export of diesel from the United States between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, a "ban on the export of diesel" means a prohibition on the exportation of diesel fuel (distillate fuel oil) from the United States, whether imposed on all exports or on substantially all exports. A restriction, quota, tariff, licensing requirement, destination-specific ban, or other limitation short of an export prohibition will not qualify unless it operates as a general prohibition on diesel exports. A prohibition may qualify whether it is temporary or permanent, provided the announcement clearly communicates a prohibition on diesel exports. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the U.S. government's present implementation of, previously-unannounced prior implementation of, or definitive decision to implement a ban on the export of diesel. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a ban on the export of diesel. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such a ban, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the ban by name, provided the substance of a prohibition on diesel exports is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. An announcement by the U.S. government that it accepts or agrees to an agreement, framework, or roadmap that includes a commitment to ban diesel exports qualifies only if (i) all parties whose acceptance is required for the agreement to take effect have accepted the agreement, or (ii) the announcement independently communicates the ban as a present and decided position of the United States, not contingent on acceptance by any other party. The following do not qualify as official announcements: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the U.S. government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States will announce or implement such a ban; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional implementation of such a ban rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a ban on diesel exports is ever actually implemented. Resolution will be based on official information from the U.S. government or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
| ourdemocracy2 |
| No |
| 1K |
| GammaSqueeze1234 | Yes | 511.78 |
| youtube-trader | Yes | 492.64 |
| pagliacci4 | No | 489.22 |
| CarVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | No | 453.06 |
| zxdfbdfgngcxv | No | 400 |
| melonmanm | No | 308.59 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-announces-diesel-export-ban-byptptpt
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