Analytics
Yes is at 2.5%, down 50 points from 52% when the market opened on 18 Sep 2026.
Across the 39 daily closes on record from 18 Sep 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 52% on 18 Sep 2026 and the lowest 2.5% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2.8%; a month before, 25.5%. Its largest one-day move was 33 points down, to 19.5% on 19 Sep 2026.
It is one of 4 markets under “What will be in the UK Budget?”.
$273.77 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $2.14K since listing. The order book holds $305.81, with a 4.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 57 trades, $65.94 bought Yes and $1.1K bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 246 shares; the largest No position is melonmanm with 370. Ten wallets hold 87.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 29 Oct 2026, tomorrow.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 12:56 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 39 points, 18 Sep 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026 | 52.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 2.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| melonmanm | No | 369.6 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 245.97 |
| pagliacci4 | No | 223.77 |
The UK Autumn Budget 2026 is scheduled to be delivered to Parliament by Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey on October 28, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed measure is announced in the 2026 Autumn Budget. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the listed options are defined as follows: - Wealth tax: the introduction of an annual percentage-based levy on the value of a person's assets. - Land value tax: the introduction of a percentage-based levy on the value of a person's home. - Fuel duty increase: an increase to the rate of fuel duty. - CGT increase: an increase to any rate of capital gains tax. A measure will only count if it is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech or contained in the official Budget documents published by HM Treasury on the day of the Budget. Measures that are only consulted on, reviewed, or otherwise not announced as government policy will not count. For the fuel duty option, the ending or non-renewal of the existing fuel duty freeze, such that the rate of fuel duty rises, will count as an increase. If the 2026 Autumn Budget is delayed beyond October 28, 2026, this market will resolve according to the Budget whenever it is delivered, provided it is delivered by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no Budget is delivered by that date, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from HM Treasury and the UK government, including the published Budget documents; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-be-in-the-uk-budget-20260914
| gurenus |
| Yes |
| 155.41 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 126.03 |
| Perypery | Yes | 114.71 |
| thisissocool11 | No | 111 |
| sunnynotbunny | No | 70.67 |
| eqzwe103qwie | Yes | 51 |
| TFBeale | Yes | 40.5 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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