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“Will the UK Budget include an increase to capital gains tax?” is a economy prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “What will be in the UK Budget?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
Trading is open until Oct 29, 2026 UTC. As of Sep 27, 4:52 PM UTC, Yes trades at 65.5¢, a 65.5% implied chance, $69.08 traded in the last 24 hours, $284.21 resting in the order book, a 11.0% bid-ask spread.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 11 daily price points from Sep 18, 2026 UTC to Sep 27, 2026 UTC (Yes between 50.5% and 65.5%); 12 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 98.4% of the loaded shares; 32 recent public fills from 18 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 11 points · 18 Sep 2026 – 27 Sep 2026 · axis zoomed to 45%–70%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Sep 2026 | 51.5% |
| 27 Sep 2026 | 65.5% |
The UK Autumn Budget 2026 is scheduled to be delivered to Parliament by Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey on October 28, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed measure is announced in the 2026 Autumn Budget. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the listed options are defined as follows: - Wealth tax: the introduction of an annual percentage-based levy on the value of a person's assets. - Land value tax: the introduction of a percentage-based levy on the value of a person's home. - Fuel duty increase: an increase to the rate of fuel duty. - CGT increase: an increase to any rate of capital gains tax. A measure will only count if it is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech or contained in the official Budget documents published by HM Treasury on the day of the Budget. Measures that are only consulted on, reviewed, or otherwise not announced as government policy will not count. For the fuel duty option, the ending or non-renewal of the existing fuel duty freeze, such that the rate of fuel duty rises, will count as an increase. If the 2026 Autumn Budget is delayed beyond October 28, 2026, this market will resolve according to the Budget whenever it is delivered, provided it is delivered by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no Budget is delivered by that date, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from HM Treasury and the UK government, including the published Budget documents; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-be-in-the-uk-budget-20260914
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 106.88 |
| tradetosurvive1 | No | 60 |
| Maximus374 | Yes | 40.59 |
| Crimson Scout 7932 | Yes | 20 |
| youtube-trader | No | 20 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | No | 20 |
| EffectiveDivisor | Yes | 19.99 |
| jwd103103 | Yes | 13.5 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard