Analytics
Yes is at 75.5%, up 38 points from 37.5% when the market opened on 30 Jul 2026.
Across the 84 daily closes on record from 30 Jul 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (8 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 85.5% on 24 Aug 2026 and the lowest 37.5% on 30 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 65.5%; a month before, 74.5%. Its largest one-day move was 19 points up, to 71% on 1 Aug 2026.
It is one of 20 markets under “Which Senate races will be within 5%?”.
$827.48 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $30.89K since listing. The order book holds $29.09K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 386 trades, $5.52K bought Yes and $3.92K bought No; the largest was a $1.2K buy of Yes at 72.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Emerald Pioneer B836 with 4.8K shares; the largest No position is macrosteaks with 2.6K. Ten wallets hold 72.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 7 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 3:46 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 84 points, 30 Jul 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | 37.5% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 75.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Emerald Pioneer B836 | Yes | 4.84K |
| macrosteaks | No | 2.62K |
| cosmicsteaks | No | 935 |
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-senate-races-will-be-within-5-20260727153827321
8 more markets, none above 24.8%.
| Mandalorec |
| No |
| 830 |
| 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhl | No | 824.01 |
| sciuboi | Yes | 751.24 |
| moneymakingmachine | Yes | 690.88 |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935 | Yes | 600 |
| JohnP92 | No | 518.82 |
| Capital-Endoderm | No | 389.88 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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