Analytics
Yes is at 37%, down 12 points from 49% when the market opened on 17 Oct 2026.
Across the 11 daily closes on record from 17 Oct 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 69.5% on 20 Oct 2026 and the lowest 37% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 55%. Its largest one-day move was 17 points up, to 69.5% on 20 Oct 2026.
It is one of 20 markets under “Which Senate races will be within 5%?”.
$1.06K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $25.25K, with a 6.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 35 trades, $173.17 bought Yes and $152.19 bought No.
The largest Yes position is jumpingjehoshaphat with 110 shares; the largest No position is PCMTest with 97.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 7 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 8:38 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 11 points, 17 Oct 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Oct 2026 | 49.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 37.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| jumpingjehoshaphat | Yes | 110 |
| PCMTest | No | 97.2 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 66.25 |
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-senate-races-will-be-within-5-20260727153827321
8 more markets, none above 27.2%.
| macrosteaks |
| No |
| 40.65 |
| sollydisa | No | 31.31 |
| tradetosurvive1 | Yes | 20 |
| CaligostoLoboto | Yes | 20 |
| Emerald Kestrel 4324 | No | 20 |
| G.Hchen | No | 11.11 |
| coypu | No | 8.89 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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