Analytics
Yes is at 25.5%, up 8 points from 17.5% when the market opened on 15 Oct 2026.
Across the 12 daily closes on record from 15 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 40% on 21 Oct 2026 and the lowest 13.5% on 19 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 27.5%. Its largest one-day move was 21 points up, to 35% on 20 Oct 2026.
It is one of 10 markets under “Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?”.
$1.97K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $50.09K since listing. The order book holds $20.04K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 395 trades, $4.28K bought Yes and $8.79K bought No.
The largest Yes position is rewardbots with 2.5K shares; the largest No position is tetrase with 5K. Ten wallets hold 71.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:49 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 12 points, 15 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–50%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Oct 2026 | 17.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 25.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| tetrase | No | 4.97K |
| rewardbots | Yes | 2.46K |
| akug | Yes | 2.1K |
On October 13, 2026, the U.S. Department of Justice announced that Abdulrahman Alfozan, an OpenAI employee and Saudi national, had been arrested and charged after allegedly installing a covert audio recording device in an executive conference room at OpenAI's San Francisco offices (see: https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/saudi-national-arrested-installing-surreptitious-audio-recording-device-openai). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. federal government or OpenAI publicly alleges that Abdulrahman Alfozan acted on behalf of the listed entity in connection with this incident between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For listed countries, the alleged conduct must be attributed to the government of the listed country, its intelligence or security services, or a state-affiliated entity of the listed country. Alfozan's nationality alone will not qualify. For listed companies or individuals, the alleged conduct must be attributed to the listed company, its subsidiaries, or the listed individual. A qualifying allegation must definitively state that Alfozan acted on behalf of, or under the direction, control, or sponsorship of, the listed entity. Statements that merely speculate about or suggest possible ties, or that describe only contact, cooperation, or association with the listed entity, will not qualify. Qualifying allegations include charging documents, court filings, and on-the-record statements by the U.S. Department of Justice, the FBI, or other U.S. federal agencies or their authorized representatives acting in an official capacity, as well as official statements by OpenAI. Once a qualifying allegation has been made, no subsequent retraction will be relevant for purposes of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and OpenAI.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-the-openai-spy-be-accused-of-working-for-in-2026
| Arman2 |
| Yes |
| 1.93K |
| hfv | No | 890.44 |
| theta-thunberg | No | 858.72 |
| adenakoz1 | No | 799.99 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 621.89 |
| Contentious-Dinnerdate | Yes | 597.62 |
| gateway- | No | 559.45 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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