Analytics
Yes is at 9%, down 38 points from 47% when the market opened on 30 Jul 2026.
Across the 90 daily closes on record from 30 Jul 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 47% on 30 Jul 2026 and the lowest 8% on 24 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 11.5%; a month before, 24.5%. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 27.5% on 31 Jul 2026.
It is one of 20 markets under “Which Senate races will be within 5%?”.
$60 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $9.63K since listing. The order book holds $20.91K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 192 trades, $670.24 bought Yes and $2.73K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Jubilant-Park with 1.4K shares; the largest No position is SnapElectionAvoider with 1.5K. Ten wallets hold 90.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 5 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:29 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 90 points, 30 Jul 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | 47.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 9.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| SnapElectionAvoider | No | 1.46K |
| Jubilant-Park | Yes | 1.37K |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 733.29 |
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-senate-races-will-be-within-5-20260727153827321
7 more markets, none above 32.5%.
| Contradict | Yes | 688.94 |
| macrosteaks | No | 547 |
| SitsToPee | No | 499.99 |
| G.Hchen | No | 200 |
| Medical-Union | Yes | 197.59 |
| PavtheGreat | No | 157.3 |
| bananabreakfast | No | 145.73 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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