What is the “Will the next Pope be Black?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: Will the next Pope be Black? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

How did this market resolve?

It resolved No on 8 May 2025. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next individual elected as pope is widely and credibly identified as Black. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". If no new pope is elected by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be the official announcement from the Catholic Church, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who still holds shares in this market?

110 public wallets still held shares when Vultax last looked. Winners usually redeem their shares after settlement, so the remaining holders are mostly on the losing side.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated May 10, 12:22 AM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-next-pope-be-black) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Resolved No: Will the next Pope be Black?

Market referencewill-the-next-pope-be-blackUpdated May 10, 2025 UTC

Resolved

No · settled May 8, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$269.7K

Resolved

Settled

May 8, 2025 UTC

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

May 10, 2025 UTC

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Observed

May 10, 2025 UTC

This closed market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Resolved

Order book

Captured book available

Final outcome

The resolved venue state is treated as proof of resolution; holder and trade rows are settlement context.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

110

Wallets

110

Top 10 share

64%

Yes / No shares

42.18K / 26.56

Rows reflect the positive holders returned for this market, not venue-wide open interest.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

500

Wallets

372

Loaded notional

Remaining positions after settlementWinners redeemed their shares, so these rows lean to the losing side. Not live orderbook depth or current OI.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
Bip-Bop	Yes	6.39K	18.0%	$6.39K
GamblerSambler	Yes	6.25K	18.2%

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Will the next Pope be Black?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Will the next Pope be Black? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
How did this market resolve?: It resolved No on 8 May 2025. Trading has stopped; the record of prices, holders and trades stays on this page.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next individual elected as pope is widely and credibly identified as Black. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". If no new pope is elected by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be the official announcement from the Catholic Church, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: Volume is the dollar value of shares traded in a period, liquidity is the dollar value resting in the order book ready to be traded against, and open interest is the value of all shares currently held. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.
Who still holds shares in this market?

Analytics

Trader

Outcome

Avg entry

Cost basis

Last trade

Bip-Bop

Yes

6.39K

18.0%

$6.39K

GamblerSambler

Yes

6.25K

18.2%

Trader	Current holding value
Agyu	$17.65
swagmegistus	$5.56
spunkygood	$1.14
DiesesJenes	$1.12
developmc	$1.1
Bip-Bop	$0
GamblerSambler	$0
cookiecane	$0
BlackPope	$0
Hhhhhhhhhhh82	$0
MichiUP	$0
Haz1123581321	$0