Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?No | buy | 1.79 | $0.560 | $1 | Oct 3, 2025 |
|
| buy |
| 4.35 |
| $0.230 |
| $1 |
| Oct 3, 2025 |
 Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 29.41 | $0.034 | $1 | Oct 3, 2025 |
 Will Diddy be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?Yes | sell | 4.76 | $0.660 | $3.14 | Oct 3, 2025 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 14.29 | $0.070 | $1 | Oct 3, 2025 |
 Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?Yes | buy | 5.21 | $0.192 | $1 | Oct 3, 2025 |
| Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?Yes | buy | 5.21 | $0.192 | $1 | Oct 3, 2025 |
 Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14?Yes | buy | 5.56 | $0.360 | $2 | Oct 3, 2025 |
 Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland?Yes | buy | 82.17 | $0.061 | $5 | Aug 21, 2025 |
 Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet?No | buy | 17.86 | $0.280 | $5 | Aug 21, 2025 |
 Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31?Yes | buy | 52.63 | $0.019 | $1 | Aug 21, 2025 |
 Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?No | buy | 8.96 | $0.670 | $6 | Jul 6, 2025 |
 Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.500 | $10 | Jul 6, 2025 |
 Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?Yes | buy | 11.63 | $0.430 | $5 | Jul 6, 2025 |
 Will Powell say "Pandemic" during July Press Conference?No | buy | 3.03 | $0.330 | $1 | Jul 6, 2025 |
| Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during July Press Conference?Yes | buy | 2.27 | $0.440 | $1 | Jul 6, 2025 |
| Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during July Press Conference?Yes | buy | 2.27 | $0.440 | $1 | Jul 6, 2025 |
| Will Diddy be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?Yes | buy | 9.52 | $0.210 | $2 | Jul 6, 2025 |
 Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by December 31?Yes | buy | 2.04 | $0.490 | $1 | Jul 6, 2025 |
| Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by December 31?Yes | buy | 2.04 | $0.490 | $1 | Jul 6, 2025 |
| Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by December 31?Yes | buy | 4.08 | $0.490 | $2 | Jul 6, 2025 |
 US-Iran nuclear deal before September?Yes | buy | 10.53 | $0.190 | $2 | Jul 6, 2025 |
 Houthi strike on Israel before August?Yes | buy | 3.03 | $0.330 | $1 | Jul 6, 2025 |
| Houthi strike on Israel before August?Yes | buy | 3.03 | $0.330 | $1 | Jul 6, 2025 |
 Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025?Yes | buy | 13.33 | $0.150 | $2 | Jul 6, 2025 |
 Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?Yes | buy | 9.09 | $0.550 | $5 | Jul 6, 2025 |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?No | sell | 5.17 | $0.700 | $3.62 | Jul 6, 2025 |
 Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 French Open?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.500 | $5 | Jun 2, 2025 |
 Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?No | buy | 6.02 | $0.830 | $5 | Jun 2, 2025 |
 Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?No | buy | 11.63 | $0.430 | $5 | Jun 2, 2025 |
 Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Yes | buy | 8.77 | $0.570 | $5 | Jun 2, 2025 |
 Trump x Xi talk before July?No | buy | 5.66 | $0.530 | $3 | Jun 2, 2025 |
 Nothing Ever Happens: JuneNo | buy | 4.35 | $0.460 | $2 | Jun 2, 2025 |
 Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?Yes | buy | 4.76 | $0.210 | $1 | Jun 2, 2025 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?Yes | sell | 11.36 | $0.960 | $10.9 | Jun 2, 2025 |
 Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 5.56 | $0.360 | $2 | Jun 2, 2025 |
 Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-05-31?Yes | buy | 2.13 | $0.470 | $1 | May 31, 2025 |
| Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-05-31?Yes | buy | 4.26 | $0.470 | $2 | May 31, 2025 |
 Will Inter win on 2025-05-31?Yes | buy | 3.7 | $0.270 | $1 | May 31, 2025 |
| Will Inter win on 2025-05-31?Yes | buy | 7.41 | $0.270 | $2 | May 31, 2025 |
 Will Paris Saint Germain vs. Inter end in a draw?Yes | buy | 3.57 | $0.280 | $1 | May 31, 2025 |
| Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-05-31?Yes | buy | 10.64 | $0.470 | $5 | May 31, 2025 |
| Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 French Open?Yes | sell | 3.22 | $0.300 | $0.97 | May 31, 2025 |
| Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 French Open?Yes | buy | 3.23 | $0.310 | $1 | May 31, 2025 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: MayYes | sell | 5.66 | $0.994 | $5.63 | May 31, 2025 |
 US recession in 2025?Yes | sell | 20.27 | $0.330 | $6.69 | May 31, 2025 |
 Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $160-170m opening weekend?Yes | buy | 1K | $0.001 | $1 | May 27, 2025 |
| Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $150-160m opening weekend?Yes | buy | 27.78 | $0.036 | $1 | May 27, 2025 |
| Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $150-160m opening weekend?Yes | buy | 27.78 | $0.036 | $1 | May 27, 2025 |
 Will South Korea presidential election winner get over 50% of votes?No | buy | 11.11 | $0.450 | $5 | May 27, 2025 |