Analytics
Resolved Yes on 6 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.7%. Yes opened at 86.5% on 2 Sep 2026. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 2 Sep 2026 to 6 Sep 2026, the highest close was 99.7% on 6 Sep 2026 and the lowest 86.5% on 2 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 9.9 points up, to 96.4% on 3 Sep 2026. $8.83K traded over the market's life.
13 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 7, 5:54 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 2 Sep 2026 – 6 Sep 2026, chart shows 80%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Sep 2026 | 86.5% |
| 6 Sep 2026 | 99.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Dr.PNL | No | 599.98 |
| lissartter | No | 157 |
| Rapid Quasar 51BA | No | 121 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Mythos-class model added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any model whose official name includes "Mythos," or "Fable" (e.g., Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Fable 6), or that Anthropic officially describes as a "Mythos-class" model or similar, will qualify for this market's resolution. Anthropic's other model tiers, such as Opus, Sonnet, or Haiku, will not qualify. The percentage displayed as "HLE Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on Humanity's Last Exam" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model's Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity's Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Humanity's Last Exam results but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the site at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity's Last Exam results. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity's Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model's HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
| No |
| 100 |
| vivi4024 | No | 90 |
| HerrieDavis | No | 86 |
| balthazar | No | 75.25 |
| PPMT | No | 60 |
| Better-Browsing | No | 50 |
| monoclith | No | 20 |
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-mythos-class-model-humanitys-last-exam-debut-20260901074046303
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