Analytics
Yes is at 49%, up 24 points from 25.5% when the market opened on 23 Sep 2026.
Across the 32 daily closes on record from 23 Sep 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (7 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 82% on 2 Oct 2026 and the lowest 25.5% on 23 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 61.5%; a month before, 46%. Its largest one-day move was 26 points up, to 82% on 2 Oct 2026.
It is one of 4 markets under “Next Muse Spark (1.4+): Text Arena Debut?”.
$44.24 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $7.57K since listing. The order book holds $218.23, with a 22.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 192 trades, $1.28K bought Yes and $813.09 bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 344 shares; the largest No position is KimchiCapital with 133. Ten wallets hold 88.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 30 Jun 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:51 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 32 points, 23 Sep 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Sep 2026 | 25.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 50.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 344.43 |
| Cheerful-Nucleotidase | Yes | 217.39 |
| KimchiCapital | No | 132.59 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Meta Muse Spark model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
| Fluo | No | 100 |
| molodoyy | No | 80.4 |
| cigarettes | No | 62.51 |
| GuyFromTinder | No | 52.45 |
| youtube-trader | No | 34.9 |
| S888 | No | 29 |
| SuperTests | No | 26 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-muse-spark-1pt4-text-arena-debut
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