Analytics
Yes is at 41%, up 15 points from 26% when the market opened on 1 May 2026.
Across the 178 daily closes on record from 1 May 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 49% on 31 May 2026 and the lowest 9.5% on 30 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 23%; a month before, 17%. Its largest one-day move was 25 points down, to 19.5% on 18 Jun 2026.
40-44 is the favourite of the 7 outcomes in “NZ Election: National Party # of seats?”, ahead of 35-39 at 38.5%.
$122.2 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $7.26K since listing. The order book holds $21.45K, with a 4.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 250 trades, $779.21 bought Yes and $831.23 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Bsau4 with 362 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 910. Ten wallets hold 93.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 8 Nov 2026, 9 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 4:33 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 178 points, 1 May 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 May 2026 | 26.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 41.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 909.63 |
| Bsau4 | Yes | 361.87 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 261.73 |
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the National Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the National Party in this election. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nz-election-national-party-of-seats
| 1walrus |
| Yes |
| 120.32 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | No | 111 |
| Swift Meteor 30F2 | Yes | 87 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 81.49 |
| xiaoaojiang | Yes | 55 |
| Basic-Outset | Yes | 44.49 |
| LornaPredicts | No | 41.98 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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