Analytics
Yes is at 56%, up 10 points from 46% when the market opened on 24 Jul 2026.
Across the 97 daily closes on record from 24 Jul 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 64.5% on 12 Aug 2026 and the lowest 26.5% on 6 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 36.5%; a month before, 41.5%. Its largest one-day move was 20 points up, to 52% on 29 Jul 2026.
It is one of 6 markets under “Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?”.
$445.3 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $40.12K since listing. The order book holds $509.62, with a 4.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $2.96K bought Yes and $3.7K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Turbulent-Men-Methane with 2.7K shares; the largest No position is dedidanc with 1.3K. Ten wallets hold 87.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:55 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 97 points, 24 Jul 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2026 | 46.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 56.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Turbulent-Men-Methane | Yes | 2.74K |
| dedidanc | No | 1.29K |
| Olcan | No | 795.47 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/highest-grok-score-on-humanitys-last-exam-in-2026-20260723191502948
| Mr.Frog🐸 |
| No |
| 310.99 |
| NoTeacher | No | 274.93 |
| tradetosurvive1 | Yes | 180.26 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 177.38 |
| LornaPredicts | No | 150.24 |
| BAO95889 | No | 126.99 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | Yes | 84.66 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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