Analytics
Yes is at 4.3%, down 20 points from 24% when the market opened on 10 Oct 2026.
Across the 16 daily closes on record from 10 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 24% on 10 Oct 2026 and the lowest 3.7% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.5%. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 5.5% on 11 Oct 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “EU lifts ban on Russian diesel imports by...?”.
$119.43 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $4.15K since listing. The order book holds $11.53K, with a 2.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 88 trades, $205.49 bought Yes and $1.11K bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 1K shares; the largest No position is DFK with 926. Ten wallets hold 95% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 2:21 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 16 points, 10 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | 24.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 3.7% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 1.04K |
| DFK | No | 925.59 |
| soul962533 | Yes | 312.5 |
Since February 5, 2023, the European Union has prohibited the import of Russian petroleum products, including diesel fuel, under Council Regulation (EU) No 833/2014 (see: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions-against-russia/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Council of the European Union adopts a decision, regulation, or equivalent sanctions-relief action lifting the EU’s ban on imports of Russian diesel fuel, or if the Court of Justice of the European Union annuls that ban, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Actions which provide partial or full relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, suspend, or terminate the prohibition on the import of Russian diesel fuel into the European Union under Council Regulation (EU) No 833/2014, in whole or in part. Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions will qualify. If the prohibition lapses because it is not renewed by the Council, this will also qualify. Changes to the price cap on Russian petroleum products, including its level, suspension, or removal, will not qualify. Renewals or extensions of existing exemptions, derogations, or wind-down periods, authorizations granted by member state authorities under existing derogations, and the delisting of individual persons, entities, or vessels will not qualify. Actions affecting only other products, including crude oil, natural gas, or coal, or only petroleum products refined from Russian crude oil in third countries, will not qualify. Mere statements of intent, negotiations, or announcements that sanctions may be lifted in the future will not qualify without a qualifying sanctions-relief action. Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union, including the Official Journal of the European Union.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/eu-lifts-ban-on-russian-diesel-imports-by-20261009201217742
| DumbOracle |
| No |
| 200 |
| enrico-vasaio | No | 200 |
| Mrpike | No | 128.21 |
| JosephIsGreat | Yes | 119.43 |
| miltern | Yes | 100 |
| melonmanm | No | 100 |
| pollution | No | 81 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
