Analytics
Yes is at 0.9%, down 24 points from 25% when the market opened on 10 Oct 2026.
Across the 15 daily closes on record from 10 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (7 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 25% on 10 Oct 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 14 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 0.9%. Its largest one-day move was 24 points down, to 0.6% on 11 Oct 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “EU lifts ban on Russian diesel imports by...?”.
$15 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $1.09K since listing. The order book holds $10.89K, with a 1.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 32 trades, $16 bought Yes and $525.23 bought No.
The largest Yes position is miltern with 140 shares; the largest No position is Mrpike with 347. Ten wallets hold 92.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 2 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:47 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 15 points, 10 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | 25.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 0.9% |
Since February 5, 2023, the European Union has prohibited the import of Russian petroleum products, including diesel fuel, under Council Regulation (EU) No 833/2014 (see: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions-against-russia/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Council of the European Union adopts a decision, regulation, or equivalent sanctions-relief action lifting the EU’s ban on imports of Russian diesel fuel, or if the Court of Justice of the European Union annuls that ban, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Actions which provide partial or full relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, suspend, or terminate the prohibition on the import of Russian diesel fuel into the European Union under Council Regulation (EU) No 833/2014, in whole or in part. Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions will qualify. If the prohibition lapses because it is not renewed by the Council, this will also qualify. Changes to the price cap on Russian petroleum products, including its level, suspension, or removal, will not qualify. Renewals or extensions of existing exemptions, derogations, or wind-down periods, authorizations granted by member state authorities under existing derogations, and the delisting of individual persons, entities, or vessels will not qualify. Actions affecting only other products, including crude oil, natural gas, or coal, or only petroleum products refined from Russian crude oil in third countries, will not qualify. Mere statements of intent, negotiations, or announcements that sanctions may be lifted in the future will not qualify without a qualifying sanctions-relief action. Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union, including the Official Journal of the European Union.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/eu-lifts-ban-on-russian-diesel-imports-by-20261009201217742
| Unwritten-Upward |
| Yes |
| 127.05 |
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 100 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 52.34 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | Yes | 22 |
| 29EDa18df836aD93a8c285F97873bBE26118A8da. | Yes | 20 |
| mangostein | Yes | 20 |
| Better-Browsing | Yes | 11.91 |
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