Analytics
Yes is at 43%, down 35 points from 78% when the market opened on 29 Jan 2026.
Across the 259 daily closes on record from 29 Jan 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (15 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 91.5% on 4 Apr 2026 and the lowest 18% on 12 May 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 31%; a month before, 25.5%. Its largest one-day move was 36 points down, to 44.5% on 2 May 2026.
Shomari Figures (D) ranks second of the 2 outcomes in “AL-02 House Election Winner”. Rhett Marques (R) leads at 57%.
$8.52K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $115.6K since listing. The order book holds $71.12K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $8.89K bought Yes and $28.96K bought No; the largest was a $2.2K buy of Yes at 27.3¢.
The largest Yes position is Emerald Pioneer B836 with 17.3K shares; the largest No position is Gaditima with 19.5K. Ten wallets hold 73.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 7 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 12:22 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 259 points, 29 Jan 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Jan 2026 | 78.0% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 43.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Gaditima | No | 19.47K |
| Emerald Pioneer B836 | Yes | 17.3K |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 12.3K |
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/al-02-house-election-winner
| Chungvicular | Yes | 8.13K |
| grinder1011 | No | 6.23K |
| Alert-Telescreen-Mineral | Yes | 5K |
| anoin123 | No | 4.81K |
| SitsToPee | Yes | 4.59K |
| BigRabbit | Yes | 4K |
| G.Hchen | Yes | 2.5K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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