Analytics
Yes is at 45.5%, up 25 points from 21% when the market opened on 22 Apr 2026.
Across the 187 daily closes on record from 22 Apr 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 78.5% on 10 Aug 2026 and the lowest 7.5% on 5 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 47%; a month before, 42.5%. Its largest one-day move was 37 points up, to 50% on 28 Jul 2026.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day ranks second of the 4 outcomes in “Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?”. Avengers: Doomsday leads at 55%; The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping is at 0.1%.
$677.6 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $115.15K since listing. The order book holds $10.23K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $16.03K bought Yes and $6.59K bought No; the largest was a $3.54K buy of Yes at 38.8¢.
The largest Yes position is Investnow with 20.5K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 43.1K. Ten wallets hold 92.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Feb 2027, 94 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 2:21 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 187 points, 22 Apr 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Apr 2026 | 21.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 45.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 43.13K |
| Investnow | Yes | 20.47K |
| arbandy | Yes | 13.56K |
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week. If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-movie-has-biggest-opening-week-in-2026
| ImJustKenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile |
| Yes |
| 7.6K |
| jjams | Yes | 4.71K |
| donthackme | No | 2.35K |
| usurper55 | Yes | 1.03K |
| 0x49F206 | Yes | 985.2 |
| eCash | Yes | 605.97 |
| Haradwaith | No | 599.9 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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