Analytics
Yes is at 0.9%, down 27 points from 27.5% when the market opened on 29 Sep 2026.
The high was 37% on 1 Oct 2026 and the low 0.8% on 17 Oct 2026. A week ago Yes was at 1.6%. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 11.5% on 3 Oct 2026.
It is one of 7 markets under “SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?”.
$23.67 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $11.37K since listing. The order book holds $2.94K, with a 0.10% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 182 trades, $879.56 bought Yes and $5.64K bought No; the largest was a $1.99K buy of No at 94.0¢.
The largest Yes position is thebam with 2.6K shares; the largest No position is 1walrus with 2.1K. Ten wallets hold 74.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 12 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 20, 4:47 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 23 points, 29 Sep 2026 – 20 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Sep 2026 | 27.5% |
| 20 Oct 2026 | 0.9% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| thebam | Yes | 2.59K |
| 1walrus | No | 2.12K |
| wallet-account-test | Yes | 1.2K |
If the 15th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/spacex-starship-flight-test-15
| Blowme_Wan_Kenobi |
| No |
| 1.1K |
| thursdays | Yes | 965.54 |
| SK999-591 | No | 927.63 |
| youtube-trader | Yes | 777.65 |
| bread-pitt | No | 488.81 |
| Emerald Scout EF69 | No | 437.54 |
| unpaidinternyes | No | 405.01 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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