Analytics
Yes is at 73.5%, about where the market opened on 29 Sep 2026.
Across the 27 daily closes on record from 29 Sep 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 90% on 5 Oct 2026 and the lowest 67.5% on 21 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 67.5%. Its largest one-day move was 13 points up, to 87% on 30 Sep 2026.
It is one of 7 markets under “SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?”.
$326.89 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $9.84K since listing. The order book holds $796.62, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 155 trades, $3.29K bought Yes and $775.06 bought No; the largest was a $1K buy of Yes at 72.4¢.
The largest Yes position is bisonhead with 1.4K shares; the largest No position is Devoted-Route with 2.2K. Ten wallets hold 77.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Dec 2026, 34 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 5:48 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 27 points, 29 Sep 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 60%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Sep 2026 | 74.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 73.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Devoted-Route | No | 2.21K |
| bisonhead | Yes | 1.38K |
| zk1984 | Yes | 999.99 |
If the 15th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/spacex-starship-flight-test-15
| MattiBianchi08. |
| No |
| 900.28 |
| GOLADS96 | No | 721 |
| Emerald Scout EF69 | No | 696.42 |
| wallet-account-test | Yes | 627 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 453.09 |
| alternate01 | Yes | 420 |
| Rr55 | Yes | 400 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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