Analytics
Yes is at 21.5%, down 26 points from 47.5% when the market opened on 2 Oct 2026.
Across the 23 daily closes on record from 2 Oct 2026 to 27 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 70.5% on 3 Oct 2026 and the lowest 5% on 20 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 5%. Its largest one-day move was 31 points down, to 33% on 12 Oct 2026.
It is one of 7 markets under “SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?”.
$681.93 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $6.01K since listing. The order book holds $557.87, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 154 trades, $813.39 bought Yes and $1.49K bought No.
The largest Yes position is bisonhead with 436 shares; the largest No position is UnscheduledNap with 557. Ten wallets hold 79.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 16 Nov 2026, 20 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 27, 9:32 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 23 points, 2 Oct 2026 – 27 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | 47.5% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | 21.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| UnscheduledNap | No | 557 |
| bisonhead | Yes | 435.8 |
| Coordinated-Leather | No | 434.93 |
If the 15th SpaceX Starship flight test lifts off from its launch pad by November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Liftoff is defined as the vehicle rising off the launch mount under its own power; a static fire, a hold, or an abort after ignition does not count. Any subsequent anomaly after liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/spacex-starship-flight-test-15
| xtxpleasecallme |
| Yes |
| 417.96 |
| GOLADS96 | No | 359 |
| Orion96 | Yes | 300 |
| Devoted-Route | No | 286.37 |
| 1walrus | Yes | 239.7 |
| RATHMA4 | No | 219.12 |
| Jam-Packed-Fraud | No | 151.16 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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