Analytics
Yes is at 5.5%, down 45 points from 50% when the market opened on 1 Apr 2026.
Across the 190 daily closes on record from 1 Apr 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (21 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 1 Apr 2026 and the lowest 4.2% on 24 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.5%; a month before, 5.1%. Its largest one-day move was 40 points down, to 10.5% on 2 Apr 2026.
$122.84K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $20.31K, with a 3.8% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $1.25K bought Yes and $52.53K bought No; the largest was a $2.1K buy of No at 87.0¢.
The largest Yes position is TANGO853 with 5K shares; the largest No position is CP-directional with 2.6K. Ten wallets hold 73.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 2:16 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 190 points, 1 Apr 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Apr 2026 | 50.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 5.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| TANGO853 | Yes | 5K |
| CP-directional | No | 2.58K |
| ololololololololo | No | 2.49K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/russia-nuclear-test-by
| Porx |
| No |
| 2.25K |
| Diligent-Scenario | No | 1.73K |
| VEF7SmxGhr | Yes | 1.29K |
| MrNoItAll | No | 806.55 |
| fiter | Yes | 676.41 |
| Amber Comet 6F8D | Yes | 432.21 |
| 3.dn9.govna | No | 403.36 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
