Analytics
Yes is at 97.1%, up 73 points from 24% when the market opened on 21 Jan 2026.
Across the 256 daily closes on record from 21 Jan 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (28 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 98.5% on 6 Oct 2026 and the lowest 13.5% on 25 Jan 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 97.2%; a month before, 98%. Its largest one-day move was 34 points up, to 48% on 31 Jan 2026.
Kevin Warsh & Rate > 2.5% is the favourite of the 2 outcomes in “Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair”, ahead of Kevin Warsh & Rate ≤ 2.5% at 2.5%.
$10.86K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $2.23K, with a 2.2% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 266 trades, $2.67K bought Yes and $1.57K bought No.
The largest Yes position is ImJustKen with 2K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 5.3K. Ten wallets hold 91.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:45 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 256 points, 21 Jan 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 21 Jan 2026 | 24.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 97.1% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 5.32K |
| ImJustKenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | Yes | 1.97K |
| 0xB16B00B5 |
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe. This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met. The rules and resolution criteria are as follows: 1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair? This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026? The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
| Yes |
| 1.57K |
| jtradegbr | Yes | 1.01K |
| e46m3 | No | 600 |
| pako | Yes | 575.66 |
| warptrading | No | 347.82 |
| puravida | Yes | 342.71 |
| Jade Quasar D7A7 | Yes | 275 |
| mombil | Yes | 220.74 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/major-rate-cut-chances-under-each-fed-chair-948
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