Analytics
Yes is at 32.5%, up 5.5 points from 27% when the market opened on 25 Sep 2026.
Across the 32 daily closes on record from 25 Sep 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 42% on 30 Oct 2026 and the lowest 14.5% on 23 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 14.5%; a month before, 18.5%. Its largest one-day move was 9.5 points down, to 32.5% on 30 Oct 2026.
$251.88 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $4.33K since listing. The order book holds $291.22, with a 17.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 87 trades, $213.78 bought Yes and $1.59K bought No.
The largest Yes position is IsolationOnHalo3Guy with 304 shares; the largest No position is Meowie2k with 300. Ten wallets hold 94.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:07 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 32 points, 25 Sep 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–50%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Sep 2026 | 27.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 32.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| IsolationOnHalo3Guy | Yes | 304 |
| Meowie2k | No | 300 |
| StarMaster | No | 158.12 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Islam Makhachev officially announces his retirement from the UFC by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To resolve "Yes", the announcement must clearly state that Islam Makhachev is retiring from the UFC. The announcement must come from Islam Makhachev himself or his official representatives. An announcement that Makhachev is leaving the UFC while continuing to compete professionally in mixed martial arts or another combat sport will qualify. The retirement must be intended to take effect immediately. An announcement that Makhachev intends to retire at an unspecified future date, or after a specified number of additional bouts, will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Islam Makhachev; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-islam-makhachev-retire-from-the-ufc-by-the-end-of-2027
| AiBird |
| Yes |
| 154.15 |
| eratoxtenex | No | 100 |
| Nicolasro91 | Yes | 93.75 |
| Haradwaith | No | 79.99 |
| bakayo33 - 9934 | Yes | 70 |
| xtxpleasecallme | No | 60 |
| Fihdrzgdd | Yes | 50 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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