Analytics
Resolved Yes on 29 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 78%. Yes opened at 43.5% on 13 Jun 2026. Before it settled, across the 45 daily closes on record from 13 Jun 2026 to 28 Jul 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 85% on 18 Jun 2026 and the lowest 43.5% on 13 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 38 points up, to 82% on 14 Jun 2026. $6K traded over the market's life.
12 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 30, 1:11 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 45 points, 13 Jun 2026 – 28 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Jun 2026 | 43.5% |
| 28 Jul 2026 | 78.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Jade Beacon E3EA | No | 2.26K |
| HerrieDavis | No | 205 |
| TeenagePanda | No | 100 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed Senator votes “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Jay Clayton to be Director of National Intelligence. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The vote refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions. If the nomination passes unanimously or without individual voting (e.g. a voice vote), this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the nomination is rejected unanimously or without individual voting, this market will resolve to “No”. If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. No attempts by a legislator to change their vote after the vote has been closed shall be considered for this market. The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-vote-to-confirm-jay-clayton-as-director-of-national-intelligence-20260611212202730
| No |
| 50 |
| .Menthe | No | 50 |
| TENETENET | No | 35.1 |
| Elias.Thornwell | No | 32.06 |
| PPMT | No | 30 |
| triklozoid | No | 15 |
| FoolAndHisMoney | No | 10 |
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