Analytics
Yes is at 43.5%, down 17 points from 60.5% when the market opened on 1 May 2026.
Across the 173 daily closes on record from 1 May 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (11 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 65% on 7 May 2026 and the lowest 26.5% on 22 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 47.5%; a month before, 45%. Its largest one-day move was 25 points down, to 36.5% on 9 May 2026.
Chris Hipkins ranks second of the 7 outcomes in “Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?”. Christopher Luxon leads at 52.5%; David Seymour is at 0.2%.
$6.07K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $26.94K since listing. The order book holds $34.53K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 473 trades, $5.37K bought Yes and $4.08K bought No; the largest was a $1.11K buy of Yes at 43.8¢.
The largest Yes position is buoys with 4.3K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 11.3K. Ten wallets hold 86.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 8 Nov 2026, 9 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:37 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 173 points, 1 May 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 May 2026 | 60.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 43.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 11.3K |
| buoys | Yes | 4.32K |
| goingsocial | Yes | 3.54K |
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-new-zealand-174
| wienerdog |
| No |
| 1.16K |
| Yearly-Flint | Yes | 1.09K |
| 1walrus | Yes | 1.05K |
| donthackme | Yes | 825.75 |
| Bigggggggg | Yes | 732.31 |
| AJM96 | Yes | 569.16 |
| SnapElectionAvoider | No | 395.53 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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