Analytics
Yes is at 52.5%, up 28 points from 25% when the market opened on 1 May 2026.
Across the 178 daily closes on record from 1 May 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 67.5% on 22 Sep 2026 and the lowest 19% on 12 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 62.5%; a month before, 53%. Its largest one-day move was 26 points down, to 19% on 12 Aug 2026.
Christopher Luxon is the favourite of the 7 outcomes in “Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?”, ahead of Chris Hipkins at 43.5%.
$8.71K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $33.32K since listing. The order book holds $38.87K, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $6.53K bought Yes and $6.49K bought No.
The largest Yes position is xnetic with 10K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 11.3K. Ten wallets hold 83.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 8 Nov 2026, 9 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:57 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 178 points, 1 May 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 May 2026 | 25.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 52.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 11.3K |
| xnetic | Yes | 10.02K |
| SnapElectionAvoider | Yes | 1.51K |
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-new-zealand-174
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | No | 1.34K |
| JackMoneyEth | Yes | 1.27K |
| clazzy1 | Yes | 1.24K |
| buoys | No | 1.1K |
| 1walrus | Yes | 1.04K |
| donthackme | Yes | 814.17 |
| macrosteaks | No | 615.32 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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