Analytics
Yes is at 0.1%, down 1.5 points from 1.7% when the market opened on 1 May 2026.
Across the 177 daily closes on record from 1 May 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (7 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 18.6% on 19 Jun 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 24 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 0.4%; a month before, 0.3%. Its largest one-day move was 8.5 points up, to 12% on 18 Jun 2026.
Nicola Willis ranks fourth of the 7 outcomes in “Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?”. Christopher Luxon leads at 52.5%; Chris Hipkins is at 43.5%.
$4.4K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $14.01K since listing. The order book holds $32.85K, with a 0.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 221 trades, $164.33 bought Yes and $7.89K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Crypto-Well with 7K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 11.3K. Ten wallets hold 95.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 8 Nov 2026, 9 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 4:09 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 177 points, 1 May 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 May 2026 | 1.7% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 0.1% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 11.3K |
| Crypto-Well | Yes | 6.96K |
| balthazar | Yes | 970.06 |
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-new-zealand-174
| mysterystrangr | Yes | 932.54 |
| Drangtian | Yes | 500 |
| afterdark1111 | Yes | 343.51 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 323.07 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 275.06 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 186.4 |
| awgraewrfa | Yes | 106.36 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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