Question 1

What is the “Will Catherine Connolly win by 5–10%?” market asking?

Accepted Answer

It asks whether the following will happen: Will Catherine Connolly win by 5–10%? It is one of the markets in the Polymarket event “Irish Presidential Election Margin of Victory”. Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

Question 2

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

Accepted Answer

At the last observation Yes traded at 0.0¢ and No at 100.0¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 0.0% for Yes and 100.0% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

Question 3

When does this market close?

Accepted Answer

Trading is scheduled to close on Oct 24, 2025. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.

Question 4

How does this market resolve?

Accepted Answer

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election, scheduled to take place on October 24, 2025. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value…

Question 5

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

Accepted Answer

24h volume ($14.87K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Question 6

Who holds the biggest positions in this market?

Accepted Answer

Vultax loaded 23 public holder wallets for this market; the largest ten hold 97.4% of the loaded shares. The Holders view lists them by size on each side, and every wallet links to its trader profile.

Question 7

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Accepted Answer

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Oct 27, 4:30 PM) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Question 8

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

Accepted Answer

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/will-catherine-connolly-win-by-510) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
Indigo Signal 2966	No	26.45K	0.0%	$0
benjibrad	Yes	1.25K	29.6%	$1.25K	Oct 14, 2:37 PM

Trader	Current holding value
Indigo Signal 2966	$26.45K
chitagrain	$10
benjibrad	$0
jos74	$0
wokerjoesleeper	$0
Ziigmund	$0
HamzaUSF	$0
Blind Chicken	$0
cynical-reason	$0
lissartter	$0
Novus0rdoSeclorum	$0
Souptar	$0

Will Catherine Connolly win by 5–10%?

Irish Presidential Election Margin of Victory

Questions about this market