Analytics
Resolved No on 26 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 20.5% on 7 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 20 daily closes on record from 7 Oct 2025 to 26 Oct 2025, the highest close was 20.5% on 7 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 26 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 10 points down, to 8.5% on 17 Oct 2025. $16.35K traded over the market's life.
23 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 27, 4:30 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 20 points, 7 Oct 2025 – 26 Oct 2025, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Oct 2025 | 20.5% |
| 26 Oct 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 26.45K |
| cynical-reason | Yes | 4.11K |
| Eduardobizz | Yes | 1K |
| Irritating-Browser | Yes | 905.41 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election, scheduled to take place on October 24, 2025. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending). This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the election aren’t known by March 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve solely based on the first official vote count released by the Electoral Commission of Ireland (electoralcommission.ie). If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/irish-presidential-election-margin-of-victory
| Ziigmund | Yes | 690.22 |
| wokerjoesleeper | Yes | 593.87 |
| TimeTraveler | Yes | 477.99 |
| lissartter | Yes | 436.61 |
| Blind Chicken | Yes | 200 |
| jos74 | Yes | 200 |
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