Analytics
Yes is at 81.5%, up 29 points from 52% when the market opened on 16 Oct 2026.
Across the 9 daily closes on record from 16 Oct 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 81.5% on 24 Oct 2026 and the lowest 49% on 21 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 71%. Its largest one-day move was 19 points up, to 71% on 17 Oct 2026.
It is one of 21 markets under “What price will Bitcoin hit in October?”.
$23.94K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $191.69K since listing. The order book holds $51.31K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $28.07K bought Yes and $19.04K bought No; the largest was a $6.35K buy of Yes at 68.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Impressive-Steak with 43.7K shares; the largest No position is Maksimenkov with 44.9K. Ten wallets hold 81.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 8 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 1:18 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 16 Oct 2026 – 24 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Oct 2026 | 52.0% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 81.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Maksimenkov | No | 44.93K |
| Impressive-Steak | Yes | 43.66K |
| Tokor | Yes | 11.34K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the month specified in the title has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT Low prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-october-2026
9 more markets, none above 1.6%.
| Quiet Falcon 3CA7 |
| Yes |
| 9.69K |
| Predictandbreathe | No | 8K |
| EgoVolae | Yes | 7.3K |
| Webbed-Minnow | No | 3.85K |
| RealMaxNick | No | 3.5K |
| asdfasdfxs | No | 3.04K |
| ComTruise | Yes | 3.02K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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