Analytics
Yes is at 97.5%, up 55 points from 42.5% when the market opened on 5 Feb 2026.
Across the 256 daily closes on record from 5 Feb 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (12 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 97.5% on 30 Oct 2026 and the lowest 33% on 13 Feb 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 95.6%; a month before, 95.7%. Its largest one-day move was 31 points down, to 38.5% on 2 Apr 2026.
600B+ is the favourite of the 7 outcomes in “Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets)”, ahead of No IPO by December 31, 2027 at 2.5%.
$63.64K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $15.05K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $20.63K bought Yes and $1.28K bought No; the largest was a $7K buy of Yes at 98.1¢.
The largest Yes position is Parallel-Guilty with 9.5K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 20.6K. Ten wallets hold 80.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 256 points, 5 Feb 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Feb 2026 | 42.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 97.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 20.63K |
| Parallel-Guilty | Yes | 9.53K |
| GollumGekko | Yes | 4.81K |
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/anthropic-ipo-closing-market-cap-119
| occasionalAwareness | No | 3.51K |
| Silver Vector FD2F | Yes | 2.75K |
| Nadmi | No | 1.89K |
| QMG-CORE | Yes | 1.61K |
| balthazar | Yes | 1.25K |
| nelbal8486 | Yes | 1.06K |
| K1ngN0rth | Yes | 997.86 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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