Analytics
Yes is at 2.8%, down 39 points from 41.5% when the market opened on 5 Feb 2026.
The high was 41.5% on 5 Feb 2026 and the low 0.9% on 9 Sep 2026. A week ago Yes was at 4%; a month ago, 2.4%. Its largest one-day move was 23 points down, to 17.5% on 14 Feb 2026.
No IPO by December 31, 2027 ranks second of the 7 outcomes in “Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets)”. 600B+ leads at 95%; 400–600B is at 1.1%.
$149.9 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $47.87K since listing. The order book holds $18.07K, with a 1.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $800.77 bought Yes and $10.7K bought No; the largest was a $1.39K sell of No at 93.2¢.
The largest Yes position is Speedy-Automation with 2.9K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 20.4K. Ten wallets hold 79.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 15, 3:24 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 224 points, 5 Feb 2026 – 15 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Feb 2026 | 41.5% |
| 15 Oct 2026 | 2.8% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 20.42K |
| Speedy-Automation | Yes | 2.91K |
| occasionalAwareness | Yes | 2.87K |
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/anthropic-ipo-closing-market-cap-119
| balthazar | Yes | 2.56K |
| JordanMooney | Yes | 1.38K |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 1.2K |
| Snarling-Cation | Yes | 1.07K |
| yoyobb2018 | No | 915.29 |
| mombil | Yes | 743.58 |
| Gausslois | Yes | 639.56 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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