Analytics
Yes is at 63.5%, down 11 points from 74.5% when the market opened on 9 Sep 2026.
Across the 47 daily closes on record from 9 Sep 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 86.5% on 12 Sep 2026 and the lowest 58.5% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 62%; a month before, 75.5%. Its largest one-day move was 16 points up, to 86% on 11 Sep 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?”.
$7.47K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $124.67K since listing. The order book holds $9.43K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $21.4K bought Yes and $6.1K bought No; the largest was a $2.56K buy of Yes at 60.4¢.
The largest Yes position is Xeny with 4.2K shares; the largest No position is yen4u with 6.9K. Ten wallets hold 54.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 11:54 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 47 points, 9 Sep 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 50%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Sep 2026 | 74.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 63.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| yen4u | No | 6.86K |
| cambridgeisaac | No | 5.82K |
| Xeny | Yes | 4.23K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an eligible AI lab, or an official representative of an eligible AI lab, announces that the lab has solved any of the qualifying Millennium Prize Problems by 11:59 PM ET of the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The eligible AI labs are Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, Alibaba, OpenAI, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, Moonshot, Meta, Nvidia, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Meituan, Amazon, ByteDance, Mistral, Tencent, StepFun, Microsoft, Harmonic, Axiom Math, Math Inc, Safe Superintelligence, Thinking Machines Lab, Reflection AI, Periodic Labs, Apple, IBM, Huawei, Samsung, Oracle, Salesforce, Cohere, AI21 Labs, Reka, Sakana AI, Poolside, Magic, Perplexity, Anysphere, Kuaishou, SenseTime, iFlytek, Baichuan, and 01.AI, together with their subsidiaries and research divisions, and any other company with a model listed on the MMLU-pro leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro) at the time of the announcement. Announcements by any other company, organization, or individual will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the eligible AI labs and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
| groth |
| No |
| 4K |
| Cuddly-Pillar | No | 3.92K |
| eCash | No | 3.47K |
| Dragontree | Yes | 3.38K |
| kl1v | Yes | 3.08K |
| wienerdog | Yes | 3.06K |
| enrico-vasaio | No | 3.04K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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