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“Will AI solve the Hodge Conjecture in 2026?” is a tech prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Which math problems will AI solve in 2026?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
Trading is open until Jan 1, 2027 UTC. As of Sep 24, 4:38 PM UTC, Yes trades at 24.5¢, a 24.5% implied chance, $40 traded in the last 24 hours, $2.44K resting in the order book, a 1.0% bid-ask spread.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 16 daily price points from Sep 10, 2026 UTC to Sep 24, 2026 UTC (Yes between 14.0% and 63.5%); 47 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 73.8% of the loaded shares; 128 recent public fills from 68 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 16 points · 10 Sep 2026 – 24 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Sep 2026 | 60.0% |
| 24 Sep 2026 | 24.5% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| molodoyy | Yes | 957.91 |
| Somber-Ice | No | 694.91 |
| GrokEnjoyer | No |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an eligible AI lab announces a solution to the problem specified in the title by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying announcement must be made by an eligible AI lab or an official representative of the lab, and must express that the problem specified in the title has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from the Clay Mathematics Institute or any other organization is required. The eligible AI labs are Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, Alibaba, OpenAI, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, Moonshot, Meta, Nvidia, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Meituan, Amazon, ByteDance, Mistral, Tencent, StepFun, Microsoft, Harmonic, Axiom Math, Math Inc, Safe Superintelligence, Thinking Machines Lab, Reflection AI, Periodic Labs, Apple, IBM, Huawei, Samsung, Oracle, Salesforce, Cohere, AI21 Labs, Reka, Sakana AI, Poolside, Magic, Perplexity, Anysphere, Kuaishou, SenseTime, iFlytek, Baichuan, and 01.AI, together with their subsidiaries and research divisions, and any other company with a model listed on the MMLU-pro leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro) at the time of the announcement. Announcements by any other company, organization, or individual will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the eligible AI labs and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-math-problems-will-ai-solve-in-2026
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 505.99 |
| weird-fishes | No | 400.27 |
| 0x652bFf901f401Fdhsk342kdjfnfk029abks13 | Yes | 376.04 |
| kl1v | Yes | 210 |
| GuyFromTinder | No | 207 |
| rouxshan | Yes | 150 |
| keepingitral | No | 125 |
| tradetosurvive1 | No | 120.34 |