Analytics
Yes is at 8%, down 42 points from 50% when the market opened on 10 Sep 2026.
The high was 53% on 11 Sep 2026 and the low 8% on 12 Oct 2026. A week ago Yes was at 9.5%; a month ago, 14%. Its largest one-day move was 26 points down, to 27.5% on 12 Sep 2026.
It is one of 14 markets under “Which math problems will AI solve in 2026?”.
$2.87K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $2.44K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 55 trades, $89.04 bought Yes and $728.89 bought No.
The largest Yes position is AJSV with 123 shares; the largest No position is h038596027355 with 122. Ten wallets hold 85.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 78 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 15, 10:38 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 37 points, 10 Sep 2026 – 15 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Sep 2026 | 50.0% |
| 15 Oct 2026 | 8.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| AJSV | Yes | 123.3 |
| h038596027355 | No | 122.24 |
| nosolution | No | 113.65 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an eligible AI lab announces a solution to the problem specified in the title by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying announcement must be made by an eligible AI lab or an official representative of the lab, and must express that the problem specified in the title has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from the Clay Mathematics Institute or any other organization is required. The eligible AI labs are Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, Alibaba, OpenAI, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, Moonshot, Meta, Nvidia, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Meituan, Amazon, ByteDance, Mistral, Tencent, StepFun, Microsoft, Harmonic, Axiom Math, Math Inc, Safe Superintelligence, Thinking Machines Lab, Reflection AI, Periodic Labs, Apple, IBM, Huawei, Samsung, Oracle, Salesforce, Cohere, AI21 Labs, Reka, Sakana AI, Poolside, Magic, Perplexity, Anysphere, Kuaishou, SenseTime, iFlytek, Baichuan, and 01.AI, together with their subsidiaries and research divisions, and any other company with a model listed on the MMLU-pro leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro) at the time of the announcement. Announcements by any other company, organization, or individual will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the eligible AI labs and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-math-problems-will-ai-solve-in-2026
2 more markets, none above 4.7%.
| uiuiuiu |
| No |
| 100 |
| youtube-trader | Yes | 80 |
| Jade Beacon E3EA | Yes | 73.61 |
| CryptoGerm | Yes | 58.09 |
| tradetosurvive1 | Yes | 52.5 |
| Georgiiandbets | No | 51.72 |
| Royal Ledger B09F | No | 51.72 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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