Analytics
Resolved Yes on 3 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 35.5%. Yes opened at 46.5% on 11 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 24 daily closes on record from 11 Jul 2026 to 3 Aug 2026, the highest close was 69% on 19 Jul 2026 and the lowest 29% on 30 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 46.5% on 24 Jul 2026. $49.24K traded over the market's life.
34 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:08 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 24 points, 11 Jul 2026 – 3 Aug 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Jul 2026 | 46.5% |
| 3 Aug 2026 | 35.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Strict-Quicksand | No | 4.59K |
| Insidious-Maelstrom | No | 1K |
| TouchDownThana | No | 900 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns a model that ranks within the top 5, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names will be used as a final tiebreaker. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model occupies one of the top five positions under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-a-chinese-company-have-the-best-ai-model-by-december-31
| HerrieDavis | No | 767.88 |
| DOG-UndressedVersion | No | 710.03 |
| BikesAreTheBikes | No | 547.26 |
| gcjames | No | 60 |
| gggb-426 | No | 50 |
| GGDMNID | No | 50 |
| .Menthe | No | 50 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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