Analytics
Yes is at 16.5%, down 34 points from 50.5% when the market opened on 4 Sep 2026.
Across the 52 daily closes on record from 4 Sep 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50.5% on 4 Sep 2026 and the lowest 15.5% on 27 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 21.5%; a month before, 38.5%. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 30.5% on 5 Sep 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “US Treasury announces Bitcoin purchase by ___?”.
$3.19K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $403.33, with a 7.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 69 trades, $231.44 bought Yes and $954.13 bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 240 shares; the largest No position is empty888 with 317. Ten wallets hold 91.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 2:44 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 52 points, 4 Sep 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Sep 2026 | 50.5% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 16.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| empty888 | No | 317.07 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 239.5 |
| TheOne777 | No | 231.35 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Department of the Treasury officially announces that it has purchased Bitcoin between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement must clearly and unambiguously communicate a completed purchase of Bitcoin; statements that the Treasury intends, plans, or is authorized to purchase Bitcoin, including through legislation or an executive order, will not qualify. Bitcoin acquired through seizure, forfeiture, or other non-purchase means, and indirect exposure such as funds or ETFs, will not qualify. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announcement is later reversed or retracted, or whether the Bitcoin is subsequently sold. A qualifying announcement must come from an official U.S. government source or an authorized U.S. government official acting in an official capacity, and must concern a purchase carried out by or on behalf of the Treasury. Qualifying sources include Treasury press releases, statements, websites, social media accounts, and Federal Register notices, as well as recorded or written statements by Treasury officials, the President, or the White House. For purposes of this market, the Treasury includes its bureaus and sub-bodies, such as the Bureau of the Fiscal Service, and any Treasury-authorized entity acting on its behalf. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States government; however, a definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-treasury-announces-bitcoin-purchase-by
| Violet Vector B233 |
| Yes |
| 180.19 |
| FrozenParasite | No | 128.29 |
| Bodytobody | Yes | 95 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | Yes | 72 |
| hp210210 | Yes | 52 |
| Fihdrzgdd | Yes | 50 |
| Clumsy-Hub | No | 33.74 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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