Analytics
Yes is at 3.5%, down 7.5 points from 11% when the market opened on 14 Mar 2026.
Across the 216 daily closes on record from 14 Mar 2026 to 25 Oct 2026 (10 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 13.5% on 15 Mar 2026 and the lowest 2.8% on 13 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.1%; a month before, 4.4%. Its largest one-day move was 5 points down, to 8.5% on 16 Mar 2026.
$158.9 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $544.9K since listing. The order book holds $32.8K, with a 0.6% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $1.21K bought Yes and $25.43K bought No; the largest was a $5.4K sell of No at 95.9¢.
The largest Yes position is Amber Signal 3E23 with 10K shares; the largest No position is Talophex with 20.7K. Ten wallets hold 54.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 69 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 25, 2:10 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 216 points, 14 Mar 2026 – 25 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Mar 2026 | 11.0% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | 3.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Talophex | No | 20.66K |
| HotDogs | No | 10.07K |
| Amber Signal 3E23 | Yes | 10.01K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-military-draft-authorized-in-2026
| Slight-Vineyard |
| No |
| 6.43K |
| 589985 | Yes | 4.85K |
| Filthy-Hyena | Yes | 4.11K |
| WhatTheBet | Yes | 3.98K |
| StraddleSeller | No | 3.36K |
| TANGO853 | Yes | 3K |
| Scoofy-Bubik | No | 2.94K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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