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“US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 7?” is a geopolitics prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
Trading is open until Oct 8, 2026 UTC. As of Oct 2, 3:01 AM UTC, Yes trades at 2.3¢, a 2.3% implied chance, $1.04K traded in the last 24 hours, $10.95K resting in the order book, a 0.3% bid-ask spread.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 5 daily price points from Sep 29, 2026 UTC to Oct 2, 2026 UTC (Yes between 2.3% and 15.0%); 66 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 94.2% of the loaded shares; 113 recent public fills from 79 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 5 points · 29 Sep 2026 – 2 Oct 2026 · axis zoomed to 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Sep 2026 | 15.0% |
| 2 Oct 2026 | 2.3% |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between the United States and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement. Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-iran-hormuz-agreement-byptptpt-20260803235957575
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 2.82K |
| nonkenny90 | No | 2.6K |
| AlAhmeda | No | 1.9K |
| Digital-Boy | Yes | 641.6 |
| planktonXD | Yes | 588.27 |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | No | 500 |
| yeeyeeyee | Yes | 466.67 |
| 2B9S | Yes | 346.86 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
