Analytics
Resolved Yes on 20 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 83.5%. Yes opened at 36% on 10 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 64 daily closes on record from 10 Mar 2026 to 20 May 2026 (8 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 83.5% on 20 May 2026 and the lowest 11.5% on 8 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 33 points up, to 58.5% on 15 May 2026. $166.54K traded over the market's life.
91 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 21, 9:49 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 64 points, 10 Mar 2026 – 20 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Mar 2026 | 36.0% |
| 20 May 2026 | 83.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| M2sx92kljs42 | No | 15.55K |
| AvishaiBass | No | 4.25K |
| toutiege | No | 3.22K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of former First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba Raul Castro between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-federally-charges-cuba-leader-raul-castro
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| No |
| 1.31K |
| norealtime | No | 1K |
| labistiiia | No | 920.74 |
| ImJustKenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | No | 632.76 |
| nikitaxce | No | 600 |
| ouiouidescs | No | 600 |
| Golden Beacon 67A6 | No | 480 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
