Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 1.5% on 24 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 5 daily closes on record from 24 Feb 2026 to 28 Feb 2026, the highest close was 1.5% on 24 Feb 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 28 Feb 2026. $115.99K traded over the market's life.
42 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 2, 8:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 24 Feb 2026 – 28 Feb 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Feb 2026 | 1.5% |
| 28 Feb 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| MrMarket | Yes | 17.8K |
| Knowing-Cane | Yes | 3.86K |
| Sure-Footed-Assessment | Yes | 1.35K |
| boombioof | Yes | 1K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. consulate (consulate general) in Guadalajara, Mexico, or a full evacuation of the consulate is otherwise confirmed by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the consulate.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-evacuates-guadalajara-consulate-by-feb-28
| Indigo Pioneer 557E | Yes | 500 |
| macarena2 | Yes | 499.99 |
| neutralwave23 | Yes | 400.76 |
| ImJustKenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | Yes | 385.83 |
| LukeAlpha | Yes | 300 |
| Immaterial-Advantage | Yes | 256.41 |
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